I don’t want Matt LaFleur fired. I think he’s a decent coach. That second sentence is exactly why he should stay.
Decent is the key word. LaFleur wins plenty of games in September and November. When the pressure rises, his decisions fall apart and his team follows.
Thursday night was the latest example. Green Bay lost 35-14 to Atlanta at Lambeau Field and fell to 1-2.
The Quick Answer
LaFleur is a good regular-season coach with a playoff problem. His regular-season record is 77-42-1, but his playoff record is 3-6.
He will get Green Bay into January. February is out of reach. That makes him a gift to Chicago, Detroit and Minnesota.
The Fourth Down That Flipped Thursday’s Game
Green Bay trailed 17-7 to open the second half. The Packers drove to the Atlanta 7-yard line and faced fourth-and-1. A field goal from there would have been about 25 yards.
LaFleur went for it. Jordan Love ran a play-action fake that fooled nobody and threw incomplete into the end zone. Atlanta then drove 92 yards for a touchdown to go up 24-7.
Why the Field Goal Was the Right Call
Down 10, Green Bay needed two scores either way. A field goal would have cut the lead to 17-10 with a full half to play. The Packers were going to need those three points at some point to force overtime.
LaFleur knows this math. In Week 1 he explained a fourth-down gamble in Minnesota by pointing to the score. “If it had been a two-possession game I probably would’ve thought otherwise,” he said.
On Thursday the kick would have changed the number of possessions Green Bay needed. He went for it anyway.
The Other Side of the Argument
Some analytics models favor going for it on fourth-and-1 at the 7. A touchdown there makes it 17-14.
Atlanta piled up 498 yards that night, though. Against an offense moving that easily, I bank the points.
Aggression Has Become Predictable
I understand aggressive coaching. Ben Johnson coaches the Bears the same way.
Going for it used to carry an extra edge because defenses didn’t expect it. Now nearly every coach goes for it on fourth down. Defenses see it coming.
Somewhere along the way, coaches started treating aggressive as a synonym for smart. I know the analytics can favor going for it even when the defense knows. But analytics don’t make every game situation identical.
Score and possessions matter more than averages. When a field goal changes how many possessions you need, I want the points.
Even Ben Johnson picks his spots. When Chicago tied the Packers with 24 seconds left last December, he kicked the extra point instead of going for two.
LaFleur’s problem is not aggression alone. He kicks when he should go and goes when he should kick.
The Resume of a Coach Who Folds
2020 NFC Championship: Kicking When He Should Have Gone
Trailing Tampa Bay by eight with 2:09 left, LaFleur faced fourth-and-goal from the 8. He kicked a field goal instead of letting Aaron Rodgers try to tie the game. Tom Brady never gave the ball back.
Green Bay lost 31-26. The analytics site EdjSports said the kick cut Green Bay’s chance of winning from 10.8% to 7.8%. Rodgers later recalled in Netflix’s Enigma wondering why Green Bay was kicking when it still needed a touchdown.
2021 Divisional Round: A No. 1 Seed Beaten by Special Teams
Green Bay was the NFC’s top seed and lost 13-10 at home to the sixth-seeded 49ers. San Francisco blocked a field goal and returned a blocked punt for the tying touchdown. The Packers had only 10 players on the field for the game-winning kick.
Special teams ranked 32nd in the league by Football Outsiders’ DVOA that season. LaFleur called the 10-man unit unacceptable and said it was on him.
2022 vs. New England: The Emotional Challenge
With 2:02 left, LaFleur challenged a clear incompletion in the end zone. His assistant in the booth told him not to. He lost the challenge along with a timeout he needed later.
Afterward he admitted, “That was an emotional decision.” Green Bay won in overtime, but the extra timeout might have given it a chance to win in regulation.
The challenge problem didn’t go away. Forbes found LaFleur went 1-6 on challenges in 2024 and 2-12 over a 14-challenge stretch dating to 2023.
2023 Divisional Round: Sticking With a Struggling Kicker
Green Bay led San Francisco 21-14 entering the fourth quarter. That week LaFleur and his special teams coordinator had stood behind kicker Anders Carlson. He had missed a kick in nine of his previous 11 games.
Carlson then missed a 41-yarder with 6:18 left that would have made it a seven-point lead. The 49ers scored the go-ahead touchdown with 1:07 to go and won 24-21.
2024 vs. Minnesota: Losing His Cool
LaFleur drew a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty while arguing with officials in a 31-29 loss. He said afterward he was “absolutely embarrassed.” LaFleur also called it a bad look for a coach who expects composure from his players.
January 2025 vs. Chicago: A Timeout That Handed Back the Game
In the regular-season finale at Lambeau, LaFleur called a timeout with 58 seconds left while planning to go for it on fourth down. He then sent Brandon McManus out for a 55-yard field goal. McManus made it, but the timeout left Chicago 48 seconds to respond.
The Bears won 24-22 on a 51-yard field goal as time expired. LaFleur said the ending was squarely on him.
The timeout problem shows up in the data, too. Research based on NFL data analyst Tom Bliss’s work found no team burned more “unnecessary” offensive timeouts in 2025 than LaFleur’s Packers. An earlier 2018-22 study ranked LaFleur among the league’s worst.
September 2025 at Dallas: Too Slow to Win
Trailing by three in overtime, Green Bay reached the Dallas 12 with 32 seconds left. After a timeout, the offense moved so slowly that it snapped the ball with six seconds remaining. McManus kicked a field goal as time expired to salvage a 40-40 tie.
LaFleur said the operation was “way too slow.”
December 2025 at Chicago: A 10-Point Lead Gone in Five Minutes
Green Bay led 16-6 with five minutes left at Soldier Field. Next Gen Stats put Chicago’s win probability as low as 0.5% before the Bears recovered an onside kick.
Caleb Williams tied it with 24 seconds left. In overtime, Green Bay went for it on fourth-and-1 at the Chicago 36 and fumbled the snap. Four plays later, DJ Moore caught a 46-yard touchdown to win it 22-16.
Jordan Love had left with a concussion. Backup Malik Willis had played well until that snap.
January 2026 Wild Card: The Biggest Collapse Yet
Green Bay led Chicago 21-3 at halftime. The Bears outscored the Packers 28-6 in the second half and won 31-27.
Up 27-24 with 4:12 left, Green Bay needed to burn clock. LaFleur called three passes of 20-plus air yards instead. An opposing coach later told RealGM that he ran his regular offense in a four-minute situation.
The drive stalled after a delay-of-game penalty coming out of a timeout. McManus then missed a 44-yard field goal that would have made it a six-point lead.
Three times last season, Green Bay lost after leading by at least 10 points in the final five minutes, counting the playoffs. No team had done that since the 1970 merger.
September 2026 at Minnesota: Taking Points Off the Board
Leading 22-17 early in the fourth quarter, Green Bay made a 40-yard field goal. A Vikings offside penalty gave LaFleur a choice. He took the points off the board to go for it on fourth-and-1.
Love’s quarterback sneak came up short. Minnesota scored 22 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to win 39-22.
The No. 1 Seed Question
LaFleur has earned the NFC’s top seed twice, in 2020 and 2021. Aaron Rodgers won MVP both seasons. Neither year ended with a Super Bowl trip.
Since Rodgers left, the Packers have won one playoff game. They have been the NFC’s No. 7 seed three times. Green Bay still extended LaFleur in January 2026 with a deal that reportedly runs through 2029.
What LaFleur Does Well
He deserves real credit. His 76 wins in his first seven seasons tied Paul Brown for the second most in NFL history. Green Bay made the playoffs six times in those seven years.
His quarterback still backs him. After the January collapse, Love said LaFleur should remain the head coach.
Pros and Cons
Pros
- He wins a lot of regular-season games.
- His teams reach the playoffs almost every year.
- Players stand behind him.
Cons
- His playoff record is 3-6.
- Late leads disappear in big games.
- Clock management and challenge decisions have cost games.
- He kicks when he should go and goes when he should kick.
Who Should Root for LaFleur
Fans of the Bears, Lions and Vikings should want him in Green Bay for years. His teams win enough to look dangerous. They also find a way to lose when it counts.
Packers fans should expect a playoff berth most seasons. A parade is another story.
Why I Don’t Want Matt LaFleur Fired
Chicago already has the better coach in Ben Johnson. In his first season, the Bears came back from 21-3 down at halftime to knock LaFleur’s Packers out of the playoffs.
So no, I don’t want Matt LaFleur fired. He’s a decent coach for the Packers. To this Bears fan, he’s exactly the coach I want on the other sideline.
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